- Dr Sucharit Bhakdi: "we see no evidence of 20-100 patients who test positive for normal coronaviruses are yet dying every day." [paraphrased translation]
- Dr Joel Kettner: "In Hubei, worst epicenter, the actual date rate is 1 per 20,000."
- Dr John Ioannidis: "Even mild common cold coronaviruses known for decades can have 8% death rate in nursing homes," published in "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data", Stat News, 17th March 2020
- Dr Yoram Lass: "In every country, more people die from regular flu than from coronavirus." ~Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020
- Dr Yoram Lass: "Whoever thinks that 'governments end viruses' is wrong." ~Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020
- Dr Pietro Vernazza: "85% of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection." ~Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt, 22nd March 2020
- Frank Ulrich Montgomery: "The lockdown in Italy had the opposite effect and did not slow the virus spread." ~Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020
- Prof. Hendrik Streeck: "The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1." ~Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine, 16th March 2020
- Dr Yanis Roussel writes: "SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year vs under 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2." ~"SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data", International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 19th March 2020
- Dr. David Katz writes "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?", New York Times 20th March 2020
- Michael T. Osterholm writes "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", Washington Post 21st March 2020
- Dr Peter Goetzsche in "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic" on 21st March 2020: "We can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time."
- most seasonal flu have .1% death rate and 20-60,000 die (before and after vaccines aka with or without, they make no real difference)
- 1957/58 flu pandemic 69,800 deaths (usa) across 15+ months
- 1968 flu pandemic 34,000 deaths (usa) over 7 month season
https://tinyurl.com/v7teh6m
Italy: Only 12% of "Covid19 deaths" list Covid19 as cause.
Report shows up to 88% of Italy's alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed. Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health summarizes Italy's NIH 3-20-2020 report (see below)
Below is our list of twelve medical experts whose opinions on the Coronavirus outbreak contradict the official narratives of the MSM, and the memes so prevalent on social media.
* * *
Dr Sucharit Bhakdi is a specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.
What he says:
We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days. But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every day.
[Dr Sucharit Bhakdi: "we see no evidence of 20-100 patients who test positive for normal coronaviruses are yet dying every day."]
[The government's anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous […] The life expectancy of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.
VIDEO (GERMAN): https://youtu.be/JBB9bA-gXL4
*
Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician specialising in Pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 2009 he called for an inquiry into alleged conflicts of interest surrounding the EU response to the Swine Flu pandemic.
What he says:
Politicians are being courted by scientists… scientists who want to be important to get money for their institutions. Scientists who just swim along in the mainstream and want their part of it […] And what is missing right now is a rational way of looking at things.
We should be asking questions like "How did you find out this virus was dangerous?", "How was it before?", "Didn't we have the same thing last year?", "Is it even something new?"
That's missing.
VIDEO (GERMAN): https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI
*
Dr Joel Kettner is professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.
What he says:
I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I'm not talking about the pandemic, because I've seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don't always know what they are. But I've never seen this reaction, and I'm trying to understand why.
[…]
I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.
[…]
In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.
[Dr Joel Kettner: "In Hubei, worst epicenter, the actual date rate is 1 per 20,000."]
*
Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).
He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.
As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.
What he says:
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
[…]
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.
[Dr John Ioannidis: "Even mild common cold coronaviruses known for decades can have 8% death rate in nursing homes," from "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data", Stat News, 17th March 2020]
[…]
If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to "influenza-like illness" would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.
– "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data", Stat News, 17th March 2020
*
Dr Yoram Lass is an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School and during the 1980s presented the science-based television show Tatzpit.
What he says:
Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.
[…]
In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus.
[Dr Yoram Lass: "In every country, more people die from regular flu than from coronavirus." ~Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020]
[…]
…there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public relations.
Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong.
[Dr Yoram Lass: "Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong." ~Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020]
– Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020
*
Dr Pietro Vernazza is a Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen and Professor of Health Policy.
What he says:
We have reliable figures from Italy and a work by epidemiologists, which has been published in the renowned science journal ‹Science›, which examined the spread in China. This makes it clear that around 85 percent of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection. 90 percent of the deceased patients are verifiably over 70 years old, 50 percent over 80 years.
[…]
In Italy, one in ten people diagnosed die, according to the findings of the Science publication, that is statistically one of every 1,000 people infected. Each individual case is tragic, but often – similar to the flu season – it affects people who are at the end of their lives.
[…]
If we close the schools, we will prevent the children from quickly becoming immune.
[…]
We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.
[Dr Pietro Vernazza: "85% of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection." ~Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt, 22nd March 2020]
– Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt, 22nd March 2020
*
Frank Ulrich Montgomery is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.
What he says:
I'm not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can't keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.
[Frank Ulrich Montgomery: "The lockdown in Italy had the opposite effect and did not slow the virus spread." ~ Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020]
– Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020
*
Prof. Hendrik Streeck is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.
What he says:
The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.
[…]
You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.
[Prof. Hendrik Streeck: "The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1." ~Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine, 16th March 2020]
– Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine, 16th March 2020
*
Dr Yanis Roussel et. al. – A team of researchers from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille, conducting a peer-reviewed study on Coronavirus mortality for the government of France under the 'Investments for the Future' programme.
What they say:
The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.
[Dr Yanis Roussel writes: SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year vs under 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2. ~"SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data", International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 19th March 2020]
[…]
This study compared the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries (1.3%) with the mortality rate of common coronaviruses identified in AP-HM patients (0.8%) from 1 January 2013 to 2 March 2020. Chi-squared test was performed, and the P-value was 0.11 (not significant).
[…]
…it should be noted that systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients. The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with this specific pathology.
– "SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data", International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 19th March 2020
*
Dr. David Katz is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center
What he says:
I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be a public health scourges of the first order.
– "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?", New York Times 20th March 2020
[Dr. David Katz writes "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?", New York Times 20th March 2020]
*
Michael T. Osterholm is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
What he says:
Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.
[…]
[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and "run" society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.
– "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", Washington Post 21st March 2020
[Michael T. Osterholm writes "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", Washington Post 21st March 2020]
*
Dr Peter Goetzsche is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.
What he says:
Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.
No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.
Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. "Why do you blow the horn?" "To keep the tigers away." "But there are no tigers here." "There you see!"
– "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic", blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020
[Dr Peter Goetzsche in "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic" on 21st March 2020: We can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time.]
Add Dr. Claus Köhnlein to your list. German doctor, internist, specialised in sport medicine and care/treatment of HIV-patients, one of the authors of the book "Virus-Wahn" from 2009 (virus delusion).
important statements: "...this is a pandemy, that never existed – stop testing and there wont be a pandemy. High death rates are often the result of wrong treatment... always ask what treatment/medicine was given to a patient who died in hospital."
READER COMMENTS
*WELL PLAYED CHINA….*
*SCENE 1 :*
The curtain opens: China becomes ill, enters a "crisis" and paralyzes its trade. The curtain closes.
*SCENE II.*
The curtain opens: The Chinese currency is devalued. They do not do anything. The curtain closes.
*SCENE III.*
The curtain opens: Due to the lack of trade of companies from Europe and the USA that are based in China, their shares fall 40% of their value.
*SCENE IV.*
The curtain opens: The world is ill, China buys 30% of the shares of companies in Europe and the US at a very low price. The curtain closes.
*SCENE V.*
The curtain opens: China has controlled the disease and owns companies in Europe and the US. They decide these companies stay in China and earn $20 Trillion. The curtain closes.
*SCENE VI:*
*Checkmate!*
*ReAmazing but true*
Two videos have passed between yesterday and today that convinced me of something I suspected, but had no basis. It was just my speculation. Now I am convinced that the coronavirus was purposely propagated by the Chinese themselves.
At first they were too prepared. Three weeks after the start of the roll, 14 days and a 12,000-bed hospitals were already under construction. And they really built them in two weeks.
Awesome.
Yesterday, they announced that they had stopped the epidemic. They appear in videos celebrating, they announce that they even have a vaccine. How could they create it so quickly without having all the genetic information? Well if you are the owner of the formula it is not difficult at all.
And today I just saw a video that explains how Den Xiao Ping gave the west a half stick. Due to the coronavirus, the actions of Western companies in China fell dramatically. China I just hope, when they went down enough they bought them. Now the companies, Created by the USA and Europe in China with all the technology put in by these exchanges and their capital they passed into the hands of China, which is now rising with all that technological potential and will be able to set prices at will to sell everything they need to the West. How are you?
None of this could have happened by chance. China who cared that a few old men died? Fewer old-age pensions to pay, but the loot has been huge. And right now the West is financially defeated, in crisis and stunned by the disease. And without knowing what to do.
Masterfully diabolic. It had to be the communists. |
Adding to this, they are now the single largest owners of US treasury with 1.18 trillion holding surpassing Japan.
An instrument that has seen the most rally
One ☝ prospective & Analogy
——-_————–_——-////-//////
How come Russia & North Korea have Low or Zero incidence of Covid- 19 ?
Is it because they are staunch allies of China
On the other hand USA / South Korea / United Kingdom / France / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit
How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus?
China says that the drastic initial measures that they took were very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas
Why Beijing was not hit ? Why only Wuhan?
It is interesting to ponder upon.. right ?
Well ..Wuhan is open for business now
Covid – 19 needs to be seen in the backdrop of the arm twisting of China by USA in the trade war
America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially
Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China.
China knows it CANNOT defeat America militarily as USA is at present THE MOST POWERFUL country in the world.
So use the virus…to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its Defense capabilities.
I am sure Nancy Pelosi got a part in this…. to topple Trump….
Lately President Trump has always been telling of how the GREAT American economy was improving on all fronts and jobs were coming back to the USA
The only way to destroy his vision of making AMERICA GREAT AGAIN is to create an ECONOMIC HAVOC.
Nancy Pelosi was unable to bring down Trump through impeachment…..so work along with China to destroy Trump by releasing a virus.
Wuhan's epidemic was a showcase.
At the peak of the virus epidemic….China's President Xi Jinping…just wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit those effected areas.
As President he should have been covered from head to toe…..but that was not the case.
He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus….that means a cure was already in place before the virus was released
China's vision is to control the World ECONOMY by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe ECONOMIC COLLAPSE…..Later China will announce that their Medical Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus
Now China shall OWN the stocks of All Western Alliances and these countries will soon be slave to their NEW MASTER….. CHINA
******************
https://tinyurl.com/v7teh6mReport shows up to 88% of Italy's alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed.
3-23-2020
The way Italy registers deaths explains their increased coronavirus case/fatality ratio, according to one expert and a report from Italy's National Institute of Health (ISS).
Citing this 3-20-2020 report (in English here), Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health said:
The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,"
This has been reported widely, it was even in The Telegraph, and yet no one seems to be engaging with it.
The president of the Italian Civil Protection Service actually went out of his way to remind people of the nature of Italy's fatality figures in a morning briefing on 20/03:
"I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus"
What does this actually mean?
It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.
It means thousands of deaths currently widely attributed to Covid19, and being used to justify the introduction of measures equating to medical martial law, may not have died of covid19 at all but of their serious chronic co-morbidity (cancer, heart disease etc.).
This statistic is not a secret, or in any way controversial, it was in The Telegraph after all, but people seem to be ignoring it, or reading around it, or perhaps simply not understanding it.
We reported on these statistics a few days ago, and many people who should know better simply reacted to the headline without either reading the actual article or understanding the statistics.
Given the bill that is having its second reading in the UK parliament today, it is important this information is spread widely and quickly.
This information was compiled with the assistance of the Swiss Propaganda Research group, we once again recommend everybody read their site. They are a must-read, a must-follow and a must-share. It is the best resource for Covid19 information on the internet.
********** ***********
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It's like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such "mild" coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.
These "mild" coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.
Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza, the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases. In the U.S., for example, so far this season 1,073,976 specimens have been tested and 222,552 (20.7%) have tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illnesses is between 36,000,000 and 51,000,000, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths.
Note the uncertainty about influenza-like illness deaths: a 2.5-fold range, corresponding to tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths are due to influenza and some to other viruses, like common-cold coronaviruses.
In an autopsy series that tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 elderly persons who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season, influenza viruses were detected in 18% of the specimens, while any kind of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient's demise.
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from "influenza-like illness." If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to "influenza-like illness" would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.
Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that's information we don't have.
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.
This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open, at least until as I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don't know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic.
Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound — in theory. A visual that has become viral in media and social media shows how flattening the curve reduces the volume of the epidemic that is above the threshold of what the health system can handle at any moment.
Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That's another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.
One of the bottom lines is that we don't know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
...
Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.
If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.
John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University.
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